the president, now leading, compared to how things stood before the conventions, when governor romney held a slight edge. joining me now to talk about it with his take, stephen hayes, columnist for "the weekly standard." so since the convention, steven, you know the president has increased his overall lead by five points, yet huge numbers of likely voters, want to show you this, 73%, think that many policies need to change. how is it possible, i mean that's a big number, 73%. how is it possible that an incumbent leads when so many voters want change? >> isn't that an absolutely fascinating result? putting those two poll numbers up against one another. i think explained by basically two factors. one, the president still has an advantage at likeability question. you know, one of these things that is hard to test and there are reasons, reasons that we don't entirely understand, that voters choose one candidate over another but in poll after poll, president obama, still has an advantage over mitt romney on the basic question of likeability. the second it seems to me is that for whatever r